000
FXUS63 KEAX 240818
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2022

Key Messages:

- Widespread rainfall expected late this afternoon and evening.
  Chances for rain will continue tonight into Thursday.

- Rain totals with average 1-2" with locally higher amounts. Flash
  flooding and severe weather remain unlikely at this time.

As of this morning, an expansive area of precipitation covered much
of the Texas Panhandle eastward into southern Kansas. A few initial
bands of light rain have extended into the CWA, but the majority of
the area remains dry. Main focus remains on slow-moving closed low
and its eventual track. For today, large scale ascent increases over
the Central Plains, but with the primary focus slightly further west
of the CWA. This, coupled with a relatively dry airmass across the
eastern CWA further reinforced by easterly winds, should limit
eastward extent of rainfall during the daylight hours today. In
fact, areas around Kirksville may not measure any precipitation
until closer to sunset tonight.

Expect this ongoing morning shield of precipitation to generally
pivot northward through early afternoon, with minimal progress
eastward past the KS/MO state line. The approach of a subtle wave
should help push new convection eastward by mid-afternoon into the
evening hours, likewise expect this to be the most probable
window (21-06Z) for moderate rainfall across the CWA.

As such with closed lows, the overall progress is trending slower,
and this likewise will result in prolonged chances for precipitation
and continued cooler weather (now through Thursday). Rain totals
today into Wednesday night are expected to average 1-2", with
locally higher amounts. While some response is expected with area
creeks and streams area wide, only localized minor flooding on our
smaller river basins is anticipated. Instability is projected to be
quite minimal through the period, and as such no strong
thunderstorms are expected. The one exception may be central/eastern
Missouri during Wednesday afternoon, if the closed low slows any
further progress. As it currently stands, the primary warm sector
free of stabilizing clouds/precip is projected to be just east of the
CWA during peak heating Wed.

Depending on the eventual speed/departure of the low, rainfall
should come to an end west to east by late Thursday. Temperatures
are expected to swap the below normal readings with highs in the 80s
for the weekend into early next work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2022

Slow moving upper level low is expected to approach from the west
leading to deteriorating conditions. Rain is expected to develop
in southeastern Kansas and lift north and slightly east through
the overnight. Heaviest rainfall through 18Z will be near the
Kansas/Missouri state line. Ceilings will attempt to lower
throughout the day, with the greatest potential for MVFR if not
IFR conditions Tuesday evening. At that point, dry slot looks to
limit precipitation potential.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...BT

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion