000
FXUS63 KEAX 071107
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
607 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020

Key Messages:
-Uncomfortable heat continues through the week.
-Slight chance for isolated pop-up afternoon showers and storms in
central Missouri.

In regard to the short term weather forecast, we are not looking at
much variety in what the weather is going to bring us. With the
broad upper level ridge remaining in place over the central CONUS,
we will continue with a persistence forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday. This translates to dry conditions and enough heat to
induce day-dreams about cooler weather. Highs will continue to rise
into the lower 90s by the afternoon for Tuesday, with lows bringing
little relief in the lower 70s.  Isolated pop-up showers are
possible in the afternoon for central Missouri, though these will be
pulse-like storms due to the lack of forcing and shear. Dew points
are expected to stay in the lower 70s, and that paired with the
light surface winds is what is causing an uncomfortable weather
pattern, to say the least.  Wednesday holds a similar weather story
with highs in the lower 90s and the chance for afternoon pop-up
showers.

Models are currently projecting heat index values in the mid to
upper 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday, with even higher values in the
bullpen for Thursday. Some areas may receive a brief reprieve in
the heat on Thursday, though this is only if our area receives
rain early Thursday morning from an MCS remnant coming out of the
Great Plains. Heat will continue for the later half of the week
into the weekend. Models are still projecting a shift in this
upper level ridge, so we will continue to track a chance for rain
and a potential break in this heat pattern.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 607 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020

Lgt fog at MCI and STJ will reduce vis to 4-5SM thru 13Z-14Z otrw
TAF are expected to be VFR. Expect just high clouds thru this
morning before diurnal CU around 5kft builds into the TAF sites
this afternoon. This evening the CU will dissipate with just a few
high clouds expected thru the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds will
be lgt and vrb this morning before becmg south around 5kts this
afternoon. Tonight winds will again become lgt and vrb.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Klaus/73
Aviation...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion