000
FXUS63 KEAX 250838
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2022

Overview:

Spotty shower activity expected to continue this morning
as a front moves into the area. The front will bisect the area by
mid afternoon with location to the south approaching heat indices
of 100 to 105. Additional showers and thunderstorms develop
Saturday night with a few being strong to severe. By Sunday,
cooler and drier air will return, but hot conditions will return
by mid next week.

Today:

Overnight, temperatures have remained quite warm across the area.
The KC Metro in particular remains near 80. This will give us a head
start as we start to warm up this morning. However a shortwave
tracking across the north has pushed a cold front toward our area.
Ahead of it, a few showers have developed across the area. This on
and and off showery activity will continue through much of the day.
Most models push the front south across the Kansas City area by mid
day. This should help some with keeping temperatures below heat
advisory criteria for the Metro. Still expect temperatures to top
out in the low to mid 90s with heat indices near 100 for the KC
Metro. Areas to the south of the KC area have a higher chances of
meeting heat advisory criteria (Butler, Sedalia, Boonville).
Upper 90s with heat indices near 105 will be possible in these
areas.

Outside of heat concerns this afternoon, storms will be possible
primarily Saturday overnight behind the cold front as another
short wave moves through. A few of these storms may be strong to
severe with quarter sized hail and 60 mph wind possible. These
storms look to mainly impact areas along and south of I-70 where
a tight instability gradient will be in place.


Sunday:

Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the area by sunrise on
Sunday. Significantly cooler and drier air will filter into the
area on Sunday. Expect gradually clearing skies and temperatures
only reaching the mid to upper 70s. This will be 5-10 degrees
below normal across the area.


Rest of the Week:

Cool conditions will be short lived as surface high pressure and
southerly flow return on Monday. Low to mid 80s can be expected
on Monday and Tuesday. We head right back into the 90s for
Wednesday through the end of the week as upper ridging starts to
nose back into the region. Fortunately, humidity should be more
bearable during these days than recently. Our next chance of rain
will hold off until Friday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1036 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

A front will approach the region tonight and move through the
terminals Saturday afternoon. Winds ahead of the front will be out
of the southeast and gradually veer to southwesterly and increase as
the front nears then switching to northwesterly behind the front.
Scattered showers, with the potential for thunderstorms, may
develop by 12Z ahead of the front with another round of scattered
thunderstorms possible after 00Z post-frontal.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ060.

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...HB
Aviation...PietrychaP

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion