000
FXUS63 KEAX 091136
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
536 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CST MON DEC 9 2019

Patchy fog developed during the overnight hours and with light winds
and a very moist boundary layer in place, wouldn`t be surprised
if there is some patchy dense fog ongoing as well...especially up
along the MO/IA border where moisture is pooling ahead of the
front and temperatures are a bit cooler. Radar is showing some
light echoes early this morning over portions of central Missouri,
but surface observations have yet to report any precipitation. If
these echoes are associated with the higher cloud cover, any
precipitation will evaporate as it falls through a significant
dry layer between 850-600 mb. We could possibly see some light
drizzle and/or some light rain develop later this morning as lift
increase ahead of the incoming trough. Any fog will clear later
this morning as the front sweeps through from north to south.

As of 3 AM, the cold front generally extended from central Iowa to
east-central Nebraska to north-central Kansas. As the front races
into, and through, the forecast area this morning, strong
northwesterly winds will quickly follow fropa and we could see some
gusts up to 40 mph across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri
later this morning. Winds are expected to stay below advisory
criteria, but can`t rule out a rogue gust to 45 mph in far northwest
Missouri. Winds will decrease slightly as the front works south, but
will still see gusts of 30 to 35 mph throughout much of the day
before dropping off later this evening as high pressure settles in.
With a significant dry layer above 850 mb, precipitation chances
remain rather slim. A few light rain showers may develop out ahead
of the front with a changeover to light snow behind the front;
however, any precipitation will remain light with little if any
measurable accumulation especially south of Hwy 36.

Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front with the high
temperature for today having occurred just after midnight. By
tonight we should see temperatures fall into the 20s with most
areas north of Interstate 70 seeing teens by Tuesday morning. The
strong winds today will make it feel closer to the teens by this
afternoon as wind chill becomes a factor. Dangerous wind chill
readings in the lower teens and single digits will start the day
Tuesday and again Wednesday.

For the remainder of the forecast period, we will see temperatures
return to near normal to slightly above normal by Friday as
temperatures in the 40s and 50s return late in the week. The
overall weather pattern after today looks quiet with the next
chance for precipitation holding off until at least this weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 527 AM CST MON DEC 9 2019

Moisture pooling ahead of a strong cold front has led to fog
developing across much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Visibility and cigs may bounce between VFR to LIFR through 14-15Z.
The arrival of the front will help to scour out the fog as winds
of 20 to 25 kt...gusting 30 to 35 kts...and a much drier airmass
move in behind the front. Strong winds will continue through
00-02Z before the pressure gradient relaxes as surface high
pressure settles across the plains. Low chances for precipitation
at the terminals has kept mention out of TAFs attm, and KSTJ would
be the most likely to see any light precipitation.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...Pietrycha

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion