276
FXUS63 KEAX 312341
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoky/hazy skies through the weekend.

- Showers and storms late this afternoon and evening primarily
  for eastern KS/western MO. A few strong storms are possible.

- Warm and humid conditions continue through Monday.
  Temperatures peak on Monday with highs expected to range in
  the upper 80s.

- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Hazy skies this weekend due to smoke from wildfires in Canada.
Steady northerly upper level flow through Sunday suggests the
potential for these conditions to last through the weekend. The
chances for some of the smoke to mix down to the surface appear low,
however minimal impacts to visibility and air quality are possible.

An upper level ridge over the Rockies continues to move east which
has allowed temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s this
afternoon. A shortwave over SD riding the outer edge of the ridge is
expected to continue its track to the south and enter the region
providing a chance for showers and storms this afternoon into the
evening mainly for eastern KS/western MO. A few storms could be
severe with good instability and marginal shear. CAPE values across
most of the area ranging from 1,500-2,000 J/kg with a pocket of
3,000 J/kg in eastern KS. Bulk shear values range around 40-50 kts
over eastern KS which will aid in storm formation. DCAPE values
ranging from 1,000-1,100 J/kg and significant dry air aloft,
indicated by model soundings, suggest damaging winds as a likely
threat with the strongest storms. Given the steep lapse rates and
CAPE values, quarter-sized hail is also a possibility. Recent CAMs
show storms developing along the northeastern KS/MO border this
afternoon and tracking to the south through early Sunday morning.

Warm and humid conditions continue through Monday as the upper ridge
axis moves over our area. Highs for Monday anticipated to range in
the upper 80s. The NBM shows a 50%-60% chance of areas in
northwestern MO to reach the 90s. Tuesday, mid to upper level
troughing results in leeward cyclogenesis over eastern CO. This
system will push a cold front through the area providing lift for
showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Models are
remaining consistent with the severe potential. CAPE values
exceeding 2,000 J/kg, steep H500-H700 lapse rates, DCAPE values
around 500-800, and bulk shear values ranging from 40-50 kts suggest
the potential threats will be damaging winds and hail. PWATs around
2 inches, which is in the climatological max percentile, across the
area suggest the potential for efficient, rain-producing storms.
StormTotalQPF shows roughly 1-1.5 inches area-wide.

Temperatures decrease on the backside of the cold front. Highs for
Wednesday and Thursday range in the 70s which is roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals. Extended guidance suggests an active
pattern for the second half of next week as a series of shortwaves
move through the area giving us multiple chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

SHRA with isolated TSRA are developing around the terminals.
Most RA activity is expected to miss the terminals and should
move out of the area around 04Z this evening. Winds become NW
with some intermittent gusts behind the boundary. Winds become
light and variable overnight. There is a chance for BR near
sunrise; however, potential VIS impacts remain minimal. Smoke
aloft keeps high BKN coverage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion