365
FXUS63 KEAX 272144
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
344 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Brief warm up today into Wednesday, though temperatures remain
  below normal. Small snow chances return late week with the return
  of arctic air.

* Temperatures return closer to normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Presently, temperatures have risen closer to freezing with ample
sunshine and high level clouds providing some "warming" through the
afternoon. However, with gradual cloud clearing under a surface high
pressure regime and cold air transport under north/northwesterly
flow, temperatures will dip back into the single digits overnight.
By tomorrow, temperatures will warm to closer-to-normal as winds
shift out of the southwest and ample sunshine continues under
clearer skies.

A developing shortwave off of the lee of the Rockies will dig
southward through Thursday, presenting the potential for flurries
with broad scale ascent ahead of the trough. The general moisture
profile in this area of ascent remains dry enough that confidence in
appreciable snowfall accumulation is low, but the potential for
flurries still exists with some moisture ingest into the shortwave
as it exits Thursday night. So, have elected to include mentions of
flurries for the forecast on Thursday alongside the passage of this
shortwave, with greater areal coverage by Thursday night. Building
high pressure behind the exiting shortwave will turn winds back out
of the north, and lower temperatures once again through the
remainder of the week alongside cold air transport aloft. Overnight
lows will continue to linger in the single digits, with the
potential for lows to drop below zero through Friday night.

Our next potential for notable weather presents itself Sunday, with
the passage of a dynamic trough through the day. Presently, the NBM
loadout draws a chance of snow across north central Missouri, but
QPF for the day remains low. Even the 90th percentile of the NBM
only projects ~1 inch of snowfall over a period of 6 hours at noon
on Sunday. With the forecast far enough in advance, will continue to
monitor the potential for snowfall on this day and analyze snowfall
trends in advance. After this potential, temperatures will warm
early next week with a ridge building behind the retreating
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions expected across the area over the TAF period.
Light, northwest winds will persist through sunset before a
gradual shift to southwesterly winds overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...Macko

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion