314
FXUS63 KEAX 200332
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1032 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost advisory tonight into early Monday morning for portions
  of NE Missouri.

- Well above normal temperatures expected Monday through
  Thursday with breezy south southwesterly winds.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday into
  Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible
  Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The short term conditions to look quiet with above normal
temperatures. Today, a weak surface front is sinking south into the
area. There will not be much of a temperatures gradient north or
south of this front just a wind shift. Highs will range from the mid
60s to lower 70s. By tonight, this surface boundary will sink into
central MIssouri near the CWA southern boundary. This will lead to
light winds and mostly clear skies tonight allowing low to drop into
the mid 30s to lower 40s. Where temperatures will drop into the mid
30s across the northeastern CWA a frost advisory is effect from
midnight through 9AM. Monday the surface boundary will lift back
north as a warm front allow modest WAA to get underway. This coupled
with height rises over the region will push highs into the upper 60s
to mid 70s. WAA will strengthen over the area Monday night into
Tuesday as a upper level trough pushes into the west coast causing
upstream upper level ridging to build into the eastern Rockies and
western High Plains. The local area will be under the lee side of
the ridge which will provided additional height rises over the area
driving highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Tuesday night, a upper
level shortwave will dive southeast in the northwest flow aloft on
the lee side of the upper ridge however, the ridge axis will be
beginning to build into the local area leaving the better chances
for precipitation associated with this feature further to the east.
the ridge axis does build directly over the local area Wednesday
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The pattern gets more active as we move into the extended period. By
Thursday, the upper level trough that was digging into the west
coast on Tuesday will move into the northern/central Plains. This
will force a cold front into the area with showers and thunderstorms
developing. The area is currently outlooked in a slight risk
however, effective shear is only 30-35kts, MUCAPE values are 1000-
1500J/Kg, which is marginal however mid-level lapse rates are steep.
Consequently, this timeframe will need to be monitored for severe
potential as we move through the work week. In addition, this round
of storms will also have the potential to produce locally heavy rain
with PWATs in the 1.25"-1.50" range. Temperatures ahead of the front
Thursday will reach the mid to upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorm
will will shift east of the area by Friday as surface high pressure
moves into the area. Temperatures will be cooler Friday behind the
front with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the region
will be under southwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwave
embedded in the flow are expected to bring another round or two of
showers to the area Saturday with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions through the period. High pressure centered across
the Upper Midwest is expected to shift east leading to winds
becoming increasingly from the south throughout the day on
Monday. Could see some marginal wind gusts through the afternoon
hours, with the gusts dropping off with sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ007-008.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...BT

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion