815
FXUS63 KEAX 140729
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
229 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will arrive Friday and continue
  through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat
  index values in the 100-105 range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

This morning a surface ridge of high pressure is in place allowing
for light winds and clear skies. This may lead to some patchy fog
this morning particularly in river valleys however, high clouds
drifting into the area from a complex of storms moving across
Nebraska may mitigate some of that. Today the surface ridge of high
pressure will slide east of the area with weak WAA expected in its
wake. A upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern
CONUS this morning will begin to slide eastward into the western
Plains today. This will provide for height rises across the area.
These height rise coupled with the weak WAA will aid in highs rising
into the mid 80s to near 90. Friday the upper level ridge axis will
move directly over the local area and stronger WAA will prevail
allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures
combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will yield heat index
values of 100-105. Saturday the upper level ridge axis remains
parked over the area with continued modest WAA keeping highs in the
low to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will continue to
yield heat index values between 100-107. Sunday, a upper level
shortwave rounding the upper ridge across the north Plains into the
Upper Midwest will act to flatten the ridge over the area. While
this feature will not bring precipitation to the area it may provide
some additional cloud cover that could limit temperatures a degree
or two cooler than what is forecast for Saturday. That being said,
highs are still expected to remain in the low to mid 90s with heat
index values again ranging from 100-105. Current thought is that
heat index values will fall short of advisory criteria especially
when factoring in it being late in the season. The best chance for
heat advisory criteria to be achieved would be on Saturday.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive on Monday as upper
level shortwaves will round the now flattened upper level ridge into
the local area. Better chances for precipitation will arrive Tuesday
into Tuesday night as the upper level ridge retrogrades westward
back across the eastern Rockies. A stronger upper level shortwave
will round the ridge and drop southeastward into the area on the lee
side of the upper ridge. This will also force a cold front through
the area bringing more seasonable temperatures back to the area by
Wednesday. Highs Monday despite shower chances will still reach the
low to mid 90s but will fall back into the mid 80s to lower 90s
Tuesday amidst better storm chances. Behind the front on Wednesday,
temperatures will return to near normal for mid to late August with
highs in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the pd. Sct-bkn high
clouds are expected thru 16Z when sct cu around 4kft is fcst the
develop. Sct cu is expected thru 00Z aft which clear skies will
be the rule. Winds will be lgt out of the E/SE thru 16Z when
they will increase out of the SSE/S to 5-10kts. Aft 00Z winds
will back to the SE and remain btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion