000
FXUS63 KEAX 041156
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
556 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon/evening over
  central and northeast Missouri. A few strong storms will be
  possible.

- Cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s expected
  through next weekend.

- Next chance for precipitation arrives Thursday and Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

Today the focus of the forecast will be on a weak cold front
gradually sinking through the forecast area. First, cooler
temperatures can be expected after its arrival with northern parts
of the forecast area only expected to reach the mid to upper 60s.
The southern half of the forecast area can expect one more day in
the 70s before cooler air filters in behind the front. Outside of
temperatures, showers and thunderstorms will become possible by mid
afternoon into the evening along the frontal boundary. Locations
impacted will be primarily along and east of I-35. There are still
some differences in models, but recent trends seem to be initiating
storms slightly farther to the west which may impact eastern
portions of our forecast area. Ahead of the front, instability will
increase in the afternoon with around 1000 J/Kg of CAPE expected.
Additionally, shear around 40 knots will be present so a stronger
storms or two could be possible, especially on the far eastern side
of our CWA. The main hazard with any storm will be hail.

Storms exit the area overnight with the return of dry weather
through the mid-week as high pressure settles into the area.
Temperatures will remain cooler behind the passage of the front with
highs topping out in the 50s and 60s through the end of the week.
The next chance for precipitation arrives Thursday into Friday.
While there remains differences in models at this time, a widespread
and much needed rainfall looks possible for much of the area. Dry
weather should return for the weekend but cooler high temperatures
in the 50s will remain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024

VFR conditions are ongoing across the region; however,
satellite observations show lower cloud layers slowly expanding
across the area across SE NE and SW IA. These clouds are
expected to work their way into the region bringing some MVFR
clouds as the sun rises. Solar heating looks to raise CIGs mid-
morning with the potential for VFR windows.

CIGs once again lower as a front moves through the area this
afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances remain east of the
terminals; although, if the front progresses slower than
anticipated, a brief window of showers are possible during the
late afternoon/early evening. Winds become northerly behind the
front and CIGs are expected to remain around 1500ft-2000ft
through the remainder of the period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Pesel

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion