000
FXUS63 KEAX 051127
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
527 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 AM CST MON DEC 5 2022

Key Message

* Warmer for Monday, cooler for Tuesday

* Rain moves in Wednesday night through Thursday

Southerly surface flow continues this morning as upstream low level
troughing persists. A good isentropic component to this influx of
slightly warmer air will bring with it some cloudiness. A stream of
upper level clouds within the mid level jet stream will likely
persist, however of perhaps more importance, especially to the
aviation community is the weak isentropic ascent in the low levels
leading to a thin cloud bearing layer capable of some ceilings
around 2-3 kft. Don`t expect these low clouds to fill in completely,
but early morning observations do indicate at least some broken
decks around 2.5 kft. No precipitation is anticipated with these
clouds, so expect slightly above normal temperatures with light
winds to present a generally tolerable day on Monday for most of the
area.

This will come to an end for Monday night into Tuesday as another
progressive cold front will intrude, bringing a dip of around 15
degrees for Tuesday, relative to Monday`s high temperatures. With
the surface ridge ushering in cooler and drier air, expect
conditions on Tuesday and most of Wednesday to be fair. One part of
the forecast to pay a little attention to is the Tuesday morning
time frame. Models are hinting at a chance for some light drizzle or
rain within a rather shallow isentropic ascent regime. There will
likely be some subfreezing temperatures at the surface, so some of
this albeit meager precipitation may freeze to surfaces Tuesday
morning before daytime warming into the middle to upper 30s reduces
that concern.

The mid level pattern makes a bit of a change for the middle to
latter part of the week, and that could have some impact to the
local area. With the surface ridge in place over the northern plains
the bulk of the moisture will be kept at bay across the lower
Mississippi River valley and the Mid-South. However, an upstream mid
level trough and an attendant low level cyclone will start to draw
warmer and moister air northward for Wednesday night. With the cold
air in place the early precipitation within the warm air advection
regime may have some low level sub-freezing air to contend with,
which may bring a brief period of light freezing drizzle or light
freezing rain, especially across northern Missouri. Expect a bit of
a strange diurnal temperature curve for Wednesday night into
Thursday as warm/moist air reaches the area before Thursday morning.
As the upper low moves eastward expect widespread rain for a good
portion of the day on Thursday, possibly clearing out by Thursday
night. This system looks to be pretty progressive, so the residence
time for moisture and lift will be on the order of 8 to 12 hours.
GFS does build in a little CAPE with this incoming trough, so a
rumble of thunder or two is very possible. Minor chances for
precipitation show up in the extended time frame, but for now it
does not look to be much impact for the local area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST MON DEC 5 2022

Still looking at a chance for some lower ceiling clouds to slide
their way north this morning between 6am and 10am. If these clouds
do make their way north, we`ll see MVFR conditions briefing
before going back to VFR. KSTJ should stay north of any low
stratus. A passing cold front this afternoon will cause a wind
shift later into the forecast period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...Klaus

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion