248
FXUS63 KEAX 042335
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
535 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing drizzle is possible tomorrow morning and afternoon,
  primarily for portions of northern Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows broad
synoptic scale ascent across much of the western half of the
CONUS within an area of broad southwesterly mid level flow. At
the surface, a 1044 mb high has made its way into northwestern
Minnesota. For us here in Missouri and far eastern Kansas,
widespread low stratus remains overhead with temperatures in the
30s. Stratus should remain through the remainder of the
afternoon/evening hours and into the overnight period.
Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is projected to quickly translate
across the Southern Rockies and into the Plains by early
tomorrow morning. With the cloud cover and some very modest
theta e advection, temperatures overnight are not expected to
drop much, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to the
lower 30s. Additionally, with the approaching shortwave trough,
drizzle will be possible starting early tomorrow morning and
continuing into tomorrow afternoon. Freezing drizzle will be
possible across portions of northern Missouri, with up to one
tenth of an inch of ice accumulation possible. This would make
travel difficult, especially for elevated roadways. As such, a
winter weather advisory will be in effect from 3 am through 6 pm
tomorrow for portions of NW, north central, and NE Missouri.
As far as the KC Metro is concerned, the NAM NEST continues to
suggest the potential for freezing drizzle early tomorrow
morning, but its low level moisture seems too high to be
realistic, and with only modest lift, seems more likely to
result in stratus rather than freezing drizzle. At this time, no
other model is suggesting a freezing drizzle threat for KC
tomorrow morning.

For Thursday, zonal west to east mid level flow should be in
place aloft as surface high pressure builds in over NW Missouri.
This should result in above normal temperatures (highs in the
mid 40s to lower 50s) with skies clearing from NW to SE during
the morning hours with ample afternoon sunshine. Cooler
temperatures, increased cloud cover, and breezy easterly winds
arrives on Friday.

As we head into Saturday, another shortwave trough and
accompanying surface low is progged to move across the Plains.
This will bring another chance for some low end QPF (less than
0.25") Saturday morning and afternoon. Some wintry precipitation
may be possible Saturday morning across NE Missouri if thermal
profiles could support it, but little to no impacts are expected
at this time.

After what appears to be a relatively quiet weather day on
Sunday, attention turns to early to middle of next week where
the pattern is likely to become much more active, with impactful
winter weather possible. NBM probabilities for MCI currently
show around a 60% probability for 72 hour snow to exceed 1" by
Thursday afternoon, with a 37% probability for snow to exceed 4"
and a 22% probability for snow to exceed 8".

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025

Non-VFR conditions to prevail across the sites this TAF period.
MVFR conditions have already settled in across all but KSTJ,
which is just barely holding onto low-VFR ceilings at the
moment. Ceilings will fall through the period, eventually to IFR
levels around/after 12z in most cases. Trend for -FZDZ has
tended to increase recently, with hi-res guidance suggesting at
all KC Metro sites (KMCI/KMKC/KIXD) by around/after 10z and to
KSTJ around 15z. KC Metro sites should see temperatures rise
above freezing by the afternoon, transitioning over to -DZRA
before ending late in the period. Winds largely around/under
10kts from the ENE to begin, shifting to SE.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-023>025-032-033.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Curtis/Williams

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion