212
FXUS63 KEAX 150500
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1100 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold weather continues through Wednesday; above-freezing
  temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday.

- The coldest temperatures of the winter are expected to arrive
  this weekend into early next week. High temperatures in the
  teens and lows near or below zero are expected Sunday and
  Monday. Wind chills may fall below cold-weather advisory
  thresholds (up to a 50 percent chance) Sunday night and
  Monday night.

- Other than a slight chance (up to 25 percent chance) of rain
  in central Missouri on Friday and Friday night, the next week
  is expected to be dry across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

The next week will feature a high-amplitude ridge in the eastern
Pacific and far western U.S. and a downstream large-scale trough
in much of the central U.S. This spells a cold and mostly dry
period for our region. The main forecast challenge for this
cycle is just how cold temperatures and wind chills will get
late this weekend into early next week.

An elongated northeast-to-southwest trough axis is swinging
through the central U.S. today, which has reinforced the cold
air encompassing much of the region. Another night of single-
digit lows is looming, as clear skies and light winds take
control this evening into at least early tonight. However, cloud
cover may increase sufficiently late to keep temperatures steady
in the hours just before dawn (and they may even rise a few
degrees). These clouds are in association with another
perturbation moving southeastward across the central/southern
Plains. However, upstream transient ridging combined with a
departing surface high will allow winds to switch to a more
southerly/southwesterly direction. The end result will be the
start of a warming trend. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to
reach freezing, but lows Wednesday night will be considerably
warmer than tonight`s. A lengthy period of warm advection
follows Thursday and Friday, leading to temperatures readily
exceeding freezing by Thursday afternoon. The remaining snowpack
will keep temperatures from soaring, especially on Thursday, so
forecast highs remain on the lower side of ensemble guidance.
However, substantial melting of the snow should continue on
Friday, probably leading to temperatures well into the 40s for
much of the area.

Enjoy the Friday warmth, because the next system moves in to
greet the weekend. A strong cold front will sweep southward
Friday and Friday night, bringing more north winds and much
colder temperatures. The surface reflection of the system will
develop rapidly Friday night and Saturday, beginning in the
southern Plains (00z Saturday) and approaching the Appalachians
(by 00z Sunday). With the fast pace of the synoptic system,
forcing for ascent will likely be shunted too far east to bring
much potential for precipitation to our area. For now, we have
lingering slight chances (up to 25 percent) for our far
southeast zones Friday night.

That will be it for precipitation potential for the forecast
period. What follows will be an onslaught of bitterly cold air
into the region for the weekend. Fortunately, winds will not be
particularly strong; however, temperatures will easily be the
coldest of the winter so far. And north breezes will be steady
enough this weekend for the chill to really set in.

Guidance has been very consistent with the extent of the cold
weather, with forecast temperature ranges generally around 5
degrees for highs and lows through next Tuesday, which is a
rather low spread for this time range. Thus, the incoming cold
is a high-confidence forecast, with highs in the teens Sunday
and Monday and lows near zero Sunday night and Monday night
quite probable (>80 percent chance). Wind chills will approach
cold weather advisory criteria during the early morning hours
Monday and Tuesday, but will be dependent on if the winds can
remain somewhat elevated. No matter what, though, this will be
the most brutal cold of the season. Be prepared!

Model variability increases by the middle of next week, but at
least some temperature modification seems probable.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

VFR conditions expected for the duration of the TAF period. A bkn-
ovc deck around 9-12kft is expected to continue to move in from the
northwest and then dissipate with diurnal heating. Winds are light
and variable and are expected to shift to the south by early
tomorrow morning while remaining light. By the end of the forecast
period winds will shift to the south-southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...Collier

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion